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ISBA-BioPharma Webinar: Bayesian influenza forecasting modelling


The ISBA Biostatistics and Pharmaceutical Statistics Section (https://isba-biostatspharma.github.io/) is pleased to announce our very first webinar. David Osthus will talk about “Bayesian influenza forecasting modelling,” with a focus on recent work on the multiscale influenza forecasting model DANTE, a collaboration with Kelly R Moran. The preprint is available here: https://nature-research-under-consideration.nature.com/users/37265-nature-communications/posts/55426-multiscale-influenza-forecasting. This model extends Dr. Osthus […]

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March 18, 2020


BA Webinar: A Novel Algorithmic Approach to Bayesian Logic Regression


The Discussion Paper of the March 2020 issue of Bayesian Analysis: “A Novel Algorithmic Approach to Bayesian Logic Regression by Aliaksandr Hubin, Geir Storvik, and Florian Frommlet with the presence of the authors, and Katja Ickstadt, Malgorzata Bogdan, Blazej Miasejedow and Jonas Wallin Wednesday, February 26, 2020 5:00 pm CET The manuscript can be downloaded […]

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February 26, 2020


BA Webinar: Latent Nested Nonparametric Priors


The Discussion Paper of the December issue of Bayesian Analysis: “Latent Nested Nonparametric Priors” by Federico Camerlenghi, David B. Dunson, Antonio Lijoi, Igor Prünster, and Abel Rodríguez will be formally presented in a Webinar on Wednesday, November 27, 2019 – 5:00 pm CET with the presence of Federico Camerlenghi and other authors, and Mario Beraha […]

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November 27, 2019


BA Webinar: Bayesian Conjugate Gradient Method


Presentation of the Discussion Paper of the September 2019 issue of Bayesian Analysis Panelists: Jon Cockayne, Chris Oates (authors) and Ethan Fang (Discussant) A Bayesian Conjugate Gradient Method Manuscript (with Discussion) https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba/1558144846

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October 2, 2019


ISBA 2018 Bayesian Foundations Lecture by Judith Rousseau


Asymptotic behaviour of credible regions Judith Rousseau The reknown theorem of Bernstein von Mises in regular finite-dimensional models has numerous interesting consequences, in particular, it implies that a large class of credible regions are also asymptotically confidence regions, which in turns imply that different priors lead to the same credible regions to first order. Unfortunately, […]

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June 28, 2018


ISBA 2018 Bayesian Foundations Lecture by Ed George


Bayesian Hospital Mortality Rate Estimation: Calibration and Standardization for Public Reporting Edward I. George Bayesian models are increasingly fit to large administrative data sets and then used to make individualized recommendations. In particular, Medicare’s Hospital Compare webpage provides information to patients about specific hospital mortality rates for a heart attack or Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI). […]

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ISBA 2018 Bayesian Foundations Lecture by Alan Gelfand


Spatial Statistics and Environmental Challenges Alan Gelfand The worlds of spatial statistics and of environmental modeling are both enormous. In a brief one hour lecture, it is not possible to cover much of this terrain. So, I will focus on two large problems which connect both of these areas: modeling of species distributions and modeling […]

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ISBA 2018 Bayesian Foundations Lectures by Anthony O’Hagan


In Praise of Subjectivity? Anthony O’Hagan Bayesian analysis requires that probabilities are subjective. Attempts to escape this apparently unwelcome fact are numerous, and they are ultimately misguided because science itself is necessarily subjective. Instead, we should embrace the opportunity to incorporate additional knowledge into the analysis through the prior distribution. But that doesn’t make subjectivity […]

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ISBA 2018 De Finetti Lecture by Philip Dawid


Bruno de Finetti’s Objectivity Philip Dawid While de Finetti famously rejected all objectivist conceptions of Probability, it is less widely understood that he was a strong advocate of objectivity in the assessment of probabilities. In particular, he allowed that one probability forecaster could be better or worse than another, and emphasised the importance of putting […]

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June 24, 2018


An Introduction to Bayesian Networks — Philip Dawid


Presented by: Philip Dawid University of Cambridge Date: Monday 26th September 2016 – 10:15 to 11:00 Title: Bayesian networks and argumentation in evidence analysis Abstract: I will outline some basic theory of Bayesian Networks, with forensic applications. Topics will include qualitative and quantitative representation, object-oriented networks, and (time permitting) causal diagrams. http://www.newton.ac.uk/seminar/20160926101511001

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September 26, 2016


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