We are glad to announce that the 2019 Applied Bayesian Statistics

Summer School (16th edition) will be held in the magnificent Villa del

Grumello, Como (Italy) along the Lake Como shore.


24-28 June, 2019

Lecturers: Adrian Raftery and Hana Ševcíková
University of Washington, Seattle, USA

Further details are provided below.

Guido Consonni and Fabrizio Ruggeri
ABS19 Directors
Raffaele Argiento
ABS19 Executive Director


* ABS19 *

Applied Bayesian Statistics School


Villa del Grumello, Como, Italy

24-28 June, 2019


– Adrian Raftery, the Boeing International Professor of Statistics and

– Hana Ševcíková, Senior Research Scientist

Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, Center for Studies in

Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, USA

The School webpage is


Registration is now open. Please note that the conference room allows

only for a very limited number of participants.


Population projections have until recently usually been done

deterministically. Recently, the United Nation Population Division

adopted a probabilistic approach to project fertility, mortality and

population for all countries. In this approach, the total fertility

rate and female and male life expectancy at birth are projected using

Bayesian hierarchical models estimated via Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

They are then combined with a cohort component model, which yields

probabilistic projection for any quantity of interest. The methodology

is implemented in a suite of R packages, which has been used by the UN

analysts to produce the most recent revision of the World Population

This course will teach the theory and practice of Bayesian

probabilistic projections. Ideas of the Bayesian hierarchical modeling

for the three main components of population change, fertility,

mortality and migration, will be explained. In hands-on exercises,

students will become familiar with the functionality of the R packages.


The school will replicate the successful format of the previous years,

and will feature lectures and practical sessions, as well as

participants’ talks. It will start on Monday after lunch and end on

Friday before lunch; Wednesday afternoon is free.

Accommodation is available either at the Villa guesthouse or in

downtown hotels (info will appear soon on the website). Como can be

easily reached by train from Milan and its airports. More details are

available on the website.