We are glad to announce that the 2019 Applied Bayesian Statistics
Summer School (16th edition) will be held in the magnificent Villa del
Grumello, Como (Italy) along the Lake Como shore.
24-28 June, 2019
Lecturers: Adrian Raftery and Hana Ševcíková
University of Washington, Seattle, USA
Further details are provided below.
Guido Consonni and Fabrizio Ruggeri
ABS19 Executive Director
* ABS19 *
Applied Bayesian Statistics School
Villa del Grumello, Como, Italy
24-28 June, 2019
– Adrian Raftery, the Boeing International Professor of Statistics and
– Hana Ševcíková, Senior Research Scientist
Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, Center for Studies in
Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
The School webpage is
Registration is now open. Please note that the conference room allows
only for a very limited number of participants.
Population projections have until recently usually been done
deterministically. Recently, the United Nation Population Division
adopted a probabilistic approach to project fertility, mortality and
population for all countries. In this approach, the total fertility
rate and female and male life expectancy at birth are projected using
Bayesian hierarchical models estimated via Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
They are then combined with a cohort component model, which yields
probabilistic projection for any quantity of interest. The methodology
is implemented in a suite of R packages, which has been used by the UN
analysts to produce the most recent revision of the World Population
This course will teach the theory and practice of Bayesian
probabilistic projections. Ideas of the Bayesian hierarchical modeling
for the three main components of population change, fertility,
mortality and migration, will be explained. In hands-on exercises,
students will become familiar with the functionality of the R packages.
The school will replicate the successful format of the previous years,
and will feature lectures and practical sessions, as well as
participants’ talks. It will start on Monday after lunch and end on
Friday before lunch; Wednesday afternoon is free.
Accommodation is available either at the Villa guesthouse or in
downtown hotels (info will appear soon on the website). Como can be
easily reached by train from Milan and its airports. More details are
available on the website.