Welcome to ISBA!

The International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)  was founded in 1992 to promote the development and application of Bayesian analysis useful in the solution of theoretical and applied problems in science, industry and government. By sponsoring and organizing meetings, publishing the electronic journal of Bayesian statistics Bayesian Analysis, and other activities ISBA provides a focal point for those interested in Bayesian analysis and its applications.  For an interesting historical perspective, Arnold Zellner recaps the beginnings of ISBA.

ISBA 2014

 ISBA 2014 will be coming to Cancun, Mexico July 14-18, 2014  so be sure to mark your calendar!

The ISBA 2014 World meeting is the continuation of the Valencia/ISBA meetings regularily held since 1979. Recent world meetings include 2006 Valencia (Benidorm, Spain), 2008 Hamilton Island (Australia), 2010 Valencia (Benidorm, Spain) and 2012 Kyoto (Japan). Since 2012 these meetings are exclusively organized by ISBA.

The conference will be held at the Cancun Center (Cancun Conference Center: http://www.cancuncenter.com/), in “Punta Cancun” (or Cancun point), a hub point in the middle of the resort

 Please see the Official Conference Website for more information.

What is Bayesian Analysis?

Scientific inquiry is an iterative process of integrating and accumulating information. Investigators assess the current state of knowledge regarding the issue of interest, gather new data to address remaining questions, and then update and refine their understanding to incorporate both new and old data. Bayesian inference provides a logical, quantitative framework for this process. It has been applied in a multitude of scientific, technological, and policy settings.

Rev Thomas Bayes"Bayesian" refers to the Reverend Thomas Bayes. The development of probability theory in the early 18th century arose to answer questions in gambling, and to underpin the new and related ideas of insurance. A problem arose, known as the question of inverse probability: the mathematicians of the time knew how to find the probability that, say, 4 people aged 50 die in a given year out of a sample of 60 if the probability of any one of them dying was known. But they did not know how to find the probability of one 50-year old dying based on the observation that 4 had died out of 60. The answer was found by Thomas Bayes, and was published in 1763 (the year after his death). Like many educated men of his time, Bayes was both a clergyman and an amateur scientist/mathematician. His solution, known as Bayes' theorem, underlies, and gave its name to, the modern Bayesian approach to the analysis of all kinds of data.  For more background on Bayesian Inference and Methods, Read on ...   

Acknowledgements

This website has evolved over the years. For initial work, we acknowledge the important contributions of Carlos Rodriguez, Susie Bayarri and Arnold Zellner. For over 10 years from 1997, Mike Evans was Webmaster. In 2007, the site was redesigned by Peter Green and Robert Wolpert. In 2011, the website was redesigned using Drupal by Merlise Clyde, Chris Hans, and Lance Brown. Please direct any questions about membership, website, bulletin submissions, conference planning using the forms under Contact Us